Majority of Airdropped Tokens Decline Sharply After Launch, Analysis Shows
Post-Airdrop Token Performance and Investor Strategies
A recent examination of cryptocurrency airdrops reveals a stark reality: 84.7% of tokens launched in 2025 are trading below their initial token generation event (TGE) valuations, underscoring the risks of holding post-distribution allocations. This data, drawn from trader observations and broader market research, highlights a persistent trend of value erosion that challenges long-term holding strategies in the crypto space.
Key Examples of Airdrop Value Declines
Trader Didi’s review of 30 personal airdrop receipts from December 2024 onward illustrates the extent of post-launch underperformance. Nearly all tokens experienced substantial losses, with only one outlier showing gains. Specific cases include:
- M3M3: Down 99.64% from TGE price.
- Elixir: Declined 99.50%.
- USUAL: Fell 97.67%.
- Magic Eden: Dropped 96.6%.
- Jupiter: Decreased 75.9%.
- Monad: Lost 39.13%.
The sole exception was Avantis, which gained 30.4% since its debut. Didi emphasized the financial rationale behind immediate sales, stating:
“Out of the 30 airdrops I’ve received since December 2024, only one is trading slightly above its TGE price today. Yet selling an airdrop at launch somehow makes you a ‘traitor.’ Let’s be honest about the game we’re playing. We’re all here to make money. Anyone telling you otherwise is lying to themselves.”
This pattern aligns with historical altcoin behavior, where sustained gains are statistically rare. Didi further advised prioritizing capital preservation, noting:
“Understand the environment you’re operating in and prioritize capital preservation above everything else. Profits are only real once they’re realized.”
An additional analyst echoed this view on valuation dynamics:
“Whoever isn’t selling most of this drops at TGE is retarded or doesn’t understand how valuation works.”
These examples point to rapid market repricing, often driven by inflated initial valuations that exceed fundamental utility.
Broader Market Trends from 2025 Token Launches
Industry analysis of 118 TGEs throughout 2025 reinforces the individual findings, showing that 65% of tokens have lost approximately 50% of their value, while over half are down 70% or more. Projects launching with high fully diluted valuations (FDV) fared worst: None of the 28 tokens starting at $1 billion or higher FDV are currently above their TGE levels. The research segmented launches by FDV quartiles, revealing:
- Lowest FDV quartile: 40% trading green, with a median drawdown of about -26%.
- Mid-to-high FDV quartiles: Median losses ranging from -70% to -83%, with virtually no positive performers.
A report summary captured this disparity:
“When you split the year by starting FDV quartiles, the pattern is clear: the cheapest and lowest FDV launches were the only bucket with a meaningful survival rate (40% green) and a relatively mild median drawdown (~-26%), while everything above mid-pack basically got repriced into the floor with median losses of ~-70% to -83% and almost no greens.”
High FDV launches often reflect ambitious valuations untethered from product maturity, leading to inevitable corrections as trading begins. This trend suggests that market forces quickly adjust overvalued assets, with implications for investor returns and project sustainability. While no uncertainties were flagged in the core data, the sample of 118 TGEs may not fully represent all niche or delayed launches.
Emerging Challenges in Airdrop Mechanics
Investor participation in airdrops appears to be waning amid structural flaws, including increasingly complex eligibility rules and vulnerabilities to exploitation. Compared to earlier cycles, where simple wallet connections could yield significant four-figure allocations, 2025 distributions now demand extended engagement, technical hurdles, vesting periods, and registration deadlines. Crypto commentator Maran highlighted this evolution:
“4 figures was pretty easy back then. Now 4 figures are the top.”
Sybil attacks—where coordinated actors create multiple identities to farm rewards—have further eroded trust, compromising several major airdrops despite anti-farming safeguards. Analyst Zamza Salim described the current state as fundamentally flawed:
“Airdrop meta in 2025 is cooked. Don’t waste month grinding for scrap while farmers eat 20%.”
These issues contribute to “airdrop fatigue,” reducing genuine user involvement and amplifying post-launch sell pressure. Statistically, the combination of poor performance and design flaws has made airdrops a high-risk, low-reward endeavor for many, potentially shifting capital toward more established assets or alternative incentives. As the crypto market evolves, these patterns raise questions about the viability of airdrops as a distribution tool. What adjustments might projects make to restore investor confidence, and how could refined mechanics influence future token valuations and broader adoption?